The Elephant in the Room. Change and Continuity in Arab Public Opinion on the Palestinian Cause after October 7th

Abstract

Since the founding of the State of Israel in 1947, the Palestinian issue has always been a major concern for people in the Middle East and North Africa, a divisive factor among governments in the area, and a cause of political polarization. However, with the emergence of the Arab Uprisings in 2010-2011 and the consequent sectarianization of regional political alliances, the Palestinian issue seemed to have lost its centrality, with some Arab countries increasingly inclined toward the recognition of the State of Israel and normalization of relations. On October 7, 2023, the Hamas-led attacks and subsequent Israeli retaliation brought the issue back to the center of regional and international debate, provoking outrage among citizens across the region and calling normalization processes back into question, demonstrating that the issue, dismissed at the élite-level, has not lost its relevance for the Arab public. How has Arab public opinion on the Palestinian issue changed in the years since the Arab Uprisings, and how has it changed since the October 7 attacks? Through a longitudinal analysis of the Arab Opinion Index, three interesting elements emerge. First, although in the period between 2011 and 2023 the Palestinian cause continued to be considered a regional and Arab cause rather than a national and Palestinian on by the majority of public opinion, that majority dramatically increased after Israeli retaliation, especially in the countries most likely to normalize relations with Israel. Second, public opinion continues to be overwhelmingly opposed to recognition of the state of Israel, but this figure fell further after October 7, and is particularly steep in countries where approval of recognition of Israel was relatively more widespread. Third, while from 2011 to 2023 Israel was considered the greatest threat to stability and security in the region, after the October 7 retaliation that role is filled by the United States.