On the credibility of basketball scoring efficiency


Abstract


Our aim deals with appraising the scoring efficiency of a player in terms ofpoints scored per hundred possessions. A Bayesian approach to theproblem, should reflect not only individual scoring skills, but also takinginto account the collective performance. In this wide context, credibilitytheory becomes an adequate mechanism deciding whether scoringefficiency calculation to be more or less plausible. We model the scoringper possession process by means of the conjugated family Multinomial-Dirichletin order to obtain a net scoring efficiency credibility formula.

Keywords: Credibility factor, Multinomial-Dirichlet, scoring efficiency

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